posted 9.27 a.m. est
Pre-open Monday 8th November
Last week I marked two instances of Significant Buying and one of Significant Selling. In the week ended 29th October there were two Responsive Selling imbalances just above 1190 but price at this level was accepted last week with Tuesday/Wednesday printing Value Areas in that region. That was an indication higher in the ST. The week ended strong.
ES has continued to find support at obvious levels (pocs of major and minor degree) which is usually a sign of strength. Until that changes it is prudent to expect higher. First sign of weakness in this trend would be Aggressive Selling being marked which has not happened since early September.
First Level (minor) S/R today: 1218 (Friday poc)
More important Support: 1178 poc
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.03 (last Monday’s ratio at 2.28 was the highest since early May). Last week the ISEE (equity only) index closed above 200 on four out of the five days. This lifted the 10dyma very close to a six month high.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: consolidating near the recent lows.
? EURUSD: Pre-open Friday I wrote that “a lot of retail shorts have just covered which from a contrarian pov is not ST bullish”. We saw weakness on Friday which has followed through today and this chart currently prints back below the Major 1/2R at 1.3965. Most important chart at the start of this week.
? UDX: New low for 2010 last week for the dollar index but as I write it is printing just above the high of the last three days.
+ TLT: chart still in weak location with confirmed lower high and lower low.
imo these charts do not have an obvious ST bias for equities.
