posted 9.26 a.m. est
Pre-open Wednesday 10th November
Tuesday saw Sellers Responding (red-at-top) as ES tested last week’s high early in the session. Previous Responsive Selling tails (around 1190) were negated by subsequent Aggressive Buying imbalances and we can say that should 1224 also be “accepted” then once again that would be a bullish indication. But, for the first time in weeks I also marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) which means that there is a high chance Tuesday’s low will be tested today. If there’s further weakness here then the SPY/SPX test of the April high will start to look like a failed breakout.
Yesterday’s red means that long trades are eliminated for me until I mark green again. Be aware that although Significant Sellers were active yesterday they were not Effective, i.e. the Value Area was overlapping the previous days VA and not lower.
Dayframe: Ineffective Aggressive Selling is often followed immediately by Responsive Buying that resumes the trend. This happened 08/30 – 08/31. It usually happens very early in the session. If there’s no Buying Response to any early probe lower after open I would expect further weakness. Alternatively, ES may print some value around 1212 which has been an attractive level overnight. I’m carefully monitoring the cumulative poc of this higher range (1218 currently) and should this migrate lower I will look to short.
First Level Resistance: 1218 (10dy poc)
Important Support: 1178 poc
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up again from 2.49 to 2.79 (the highest since early May).
Supporting Charts
? USDJPY: highest level today for a month.
– EURUSD: Most important chart to watch imo. Earlier today chart printed a new 10day low. Currently printing at the bottom of the range that began early October and below the Major 1/2R at 1.3965.
– UDX: Attempting to rally last four days. Reference: 3month poc at 77.28. Currently prints above that level.
+ TLT: chart still in weak location with confirmed lower high and lower low.
imo these charts have a slightly negative ST bias for equities.
