posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 20th January
Significant Selling was marked on Wednesday for the first time since mid December. Tuesday’s green-at-top high was not tested, instead Responsive Sellers entered from the open with further Aggressive Selling being marked later in the session. The Value Area was lower, wider and volume was well above its 20dayma. Long trades are now eliminated for me, at least until I mark Significant Buying again.
In the dayframe this was a constructive day for the Sellers with ES breaking below the Responsive (green-at-bottom) low of last Friday and closing below the minor poc at 1281.50. Stats suggest yesterday’s low at 1275 will be tested (not very helpful as pre-open ES prints just above that level). More important test for the Buyers will be to see if they can print some value back above 1281.50 which will keep ES in relatively strong location.
Dayframe: The 8day VAL comes in at 1275.5 and that is why ES has stalled here. If ES spends time around 1277/78 the 1281.50 poc would migrate down to this level and the VAL (support) would also fall. Time above 1281.50 would be ST bullish (least likely imo); time around 1277/78 ST bearish (most likely imo).
First Level S/R = 1281.50 (18dy poc)
Support = 1267.50 (poc)
Major Support = 1254 (55dy poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 3.94. That is the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities)
+ EURUSD: Back in a stronger price location above 1.3087, the 1/2R off the June low.
+ UDX: Currently prints back below 80.15, the major 1/2R. This is a weaker price location.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is the 2month poc at 92.56. Chart currently in weak location below that level.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
