posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 25th February
On Thursday there was a brief price probe (actually less than one minute) below the 1293 support. This is now proven support and time spent below that level would indicate lower.
Should it be reached, 1318 is the obvious level of resistance being both the minor poc and the minor 1/2R off last week’s high. ES has printed as high as 1313.25 pre-open.
Dayframe: 1306.50 is v. minor S/R today and intraday support or resistance at this level may give a clue re the bias today.
%Stocks>50dyma for both NewYork and Nasdaq yet to break conclusively below the important 50% level.
First Level Resistance = 1318.00
Support 1 = 1293.00 Support 2 = 1281.50
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls at 36.6% which is a big reduction from last week’s 46.6% and Bears at 36.2% which is up from 25.6%. Therefore the net is 0.4 which is the lowest since early September. Also lipperfundsflow.com reported Equity Fund Outflows of -$3.4 billion to the week ended 02/23 which is the largest net outflow in fourteen weeks.
In contrast to the Investors Intelligence (advisers) poll these indicators show an increase in Bearish sentiment – but from excessively high readings so not in any way contrarian bullish.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex ratio was down slightly to 3.22 (from 3.29). This is still very high historically.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Chart prints above the 1/2R at 1.3580. Reached a 16day high today.
+ UDX: Chart in weak position below the 1/2R at 78.53.
? TLT: Reference level is 91.80 (6month poc) and chart is probing up into that resistance.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities – TLT chart interesting again today.
