posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 24th March
SPY made an early probe below its 4month poc Support at 128.57 which was quickly rejected and then rallied to its 1/2R from Feb high Resistance (see levels in eBook). Pre-open SPY is printing above that Resistance which is a minor indication of strength.
ES: I marked Significant Buying on Wednesday (green-at-top) but this was Ineffective Buying because the Value Area was lower/overlapping and wider.
The 20day poc at 1293.50 is now First Level S/R and if ES is heading higher in the ST this would most likely be a level of Support intraday.
Important Levels today:
First Level S/R =1293.50 (20day poc)
Support = 1289.50 1/2R from Feb high (129.98 SPY)
Resistance = 1318 (poc)
8dayVAH = 1296 (dotted) 8dayVAL = 1267 (dotted)
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly at 2.30. The ISEE (equity-only) index came in with another relatively high number at 210, the third day above 200.
Very mixed. Buyers were marked but Ineffective, ST Sentiment indicates higher, price location is stronger – The CP Market Timing System is Negative but %Stocks>50ma is back above 50 for Nyse (not Nasdaq). If SPY closes the week above 130 Weekly Price Structure would be back to bullish but hourly oscillators are getting overbought.
Summary: Effective Buying marked above ES 1293.50 indicates higher. Effective Selling marked Below ES 1289.50 indicates lower.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: So far has failed to test the November high at 1.4282. Still in strong price location.
+ UDX: This week reached its lowest level since December 2009. Still in weak price location.
– TLT: In a stronger price location than recently above the 91.82 poc.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
