posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 25th March
ES found support at the 20day poc at 1293.50 (see yesterday’s comments) and major index ETFs now print above the Resistance levels given in the eBook so price location is much stronger.
Support = 1289.50 1/2R to 1293.50 (20day poc)
Resistance = 1318 (poc)
Buyers are active although not yet Effective (Thursday’s Value Area was higher but narrower). 1318 poc could prove a significant area of Resistance if reached (ES is currently printly well above its 8dayVAH at 1295.5) . ES printing time above that level would be a clear indication of strength and strongly suggest a test of the February high.
Sentiment: AAII (public poll) w/e 18th was the first poll in six months where there were more Bears than Bulls and was ST Bullish (see eBook). This week Bulls% is 37.7 (up from 28.5) and Bears% at 36 (down from 40.1).
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly on Thursday to 2.43 from 2.30. The ISEE (equity-only) index came in with another relatively high number at 259, the fourth consecutive day above 200. Also VIX has fallen back sharply to close at 18 on Thursday, down from a closing high of 29.4 on 16th.
As noted in the eBook, Sentiment was ST Bullish at the start of this week. The latest readings here are not so Bullish but certainly not yet Bearish from a contrarian pov.
%Stocks>50ma is back above 50 for Nyse (not Nasdaq).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: So far has failed to test the November high at 1.4282. Still in strong price location.
+ UDX: This week reached its lowest level since December 2009. Still in weak price location.
– TLT: In a stronger price location than recently above the 91.82 poc.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
