posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Tuesday 19th April
ES fell soon after the open on Monday but found Support (within the zone given) just above the 1/2R off February high.
It is always helpful to ask the questions “who is Active?” and “are they Effective?”. You can see from the chart that in the last three trading days the Buyers have been Active but have not been Effective, i.e. price is lower. During the four previous trading days Sellers were Active and were Effective, i.e. price declined. Until Buyers prove they can be Effective it is wise to assume their appearance on the chart is “forced” by Sellers Resting which is often a weak indication. This chart “breaks down” if it breaks Monday’s low, ES has found Support at an obvious level so maybe the Buyers can do something from here.
First Level Resistance = 1308.50 (2month poc)
First Level Support between 1289.50 1/2R off February high and 1293 (poc)
%Stocks>50dayma. Nyse has joined the Nasdaq number below 50 – but only just.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly to 2.80, a 14day low. The ratio reached 3.99 on Thursday 7th April. That’s the highest I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Chart broke the support trendline off the January low.
? UDX: Still in a very weak price location but attempting to rally.
– TLT: Chart currently prints back above the 18month poc at 91.82. Consolidation here would put the chart in a much stronger price location.
imo although these charts are mixed in the ST the bias for equities is most likely negative.
