posted 9.21 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 12th May
My ST reading of the market going into Wednesday’s session (see above) went wrong very quickly. I had anticipated support around 1349.50 (minor 1/2R), a test of Tuesday’s green-at-top high and further strength to the end of the week which would hopefully have seen the Market Timing System improve from its current negative status. Instead ES never managed to print above the 1354 poc and fell below the minor 1/2R very quickly which put it in a ST weak position.
I marked Responsive and Aggressive Selling on Wednesday which now eliminates Long Trades for me until Buyers are marked again.
The ST analysis now affirms the Market Timing System i.e. both negative but if ES holds above 1327 it is in a relatively strong price location. Pre-open ES has printed as low as 1329.
First Level Resistance = 1337 (minor 8day poc)
Major Support = 1327 (6month poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up to 4.40 which is the third highest ratio I have in my database; and on a down day for the market – not bullish. I wrote pre-open May 4th “I would expect this ratio to come down quite a bit before the market could move higher” – so far it has not.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Has broken below the lower channel support (off January low) and also broken the potential support that was the lod high in November. Next support is the 12month poc at 1.3923. New 25day low today and daily momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
? Dollar Index: Printing a 17day high today and daily momentum is up.
Has now reached the potential Resistance of the old low in November.
? TLT: Last week chart printed its highest level since early December but daily momentum is down
imo these charts are mixed and do not have an obvious bias for equities.
