posted 9.27 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Thursday 4th August
Tuesday’s red-at-bottom low was tested on Wednesday and for the first time in nine days I marked Significant Buyers – Responding as the March low was tested. As noted already, what’s different between now and the March low is the lack of any obvious extreme in Bearish sentiment. In the longer term that’s not bullish. The green-at-bottom low yesterday may be an indicator that Buyers are tempted here but I would need a lot more evidence before considering the long side. ES printing some time above 1254 (min poc) would be the first sign of ST strength. In light of other evidence already discussed this is still Sellers in control. I’m still very cautious here.
First Level Resistance = 1254 (min 5dy poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly to 3.04 (from 3.48). No capitulation here.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and below the 1/2R off May high at 1.44. Momentum (PriceOsc) up for ten days.
? Dollar Index: Currently printing at the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: Currently prints well above the major 1/2R at 98.32. This is a strong postion. Technically Overbought = RSI(14) at its highest since the Aug 2010 top.
imo these charts are mixed for equities. Could easily become negative – watch dollar index.
