posted 9.21 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Friday 5th August
Aggressive Selling was marked again on Thursday with ES down hard; almost to 1178 which is a previous poc. In the context of the recent decline this would be considered Minor Support but if there are Buyers willing to Respond this would be an obvious level. However, as I wrote yesterday, I would still “need a lot more evidence before considering the long side”. If ES prints time below 1178 (i.e. does not find a Response if tested) it would suggest lower still, targeting the Major Support at 1094 area.
Minor Support = 1178 (previous poc) (SPY = 118.39)
Major Support = 1094 (this is the MAJ LT poc)
LT Sentiment: In today’s webcast.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down to 2.53 (from 3.04). Bull fund assets I follow were down by 17% which is understandable but Bear fund assets were only up by 3% which is not yet a measurable degree of extreme pessimism.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and below the 1/2R off May high at 1.44.
? Dollar Index: Currently printing at the 74.96 poc.
? TLT: Has rapidly climbed to reach a level of Major Resistance which is the 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22. Value printed above this level would put TLT in a further postion of strength.
With Dollar Index and TLT at major Resistance it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST.
