posted 9.28 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Thursday 1st September
I marked Responsive Sellers early in Wednesday’s session but it was minimal and Ineffective (Value Area was higher). Effective Selling below 1203.5 would be first sign of weakness if ES is going to stall at the 1/2R Resistance at 1222.50. Value printed above that level would indicate higher.
Resistance = 1222.25 (1/2R off May high) (123.72 SPY)
First Level Support = 1203.5 (minor 6dy poc) (120.90 SPY)
Support = 1169 (30dy poc)
LT Sentiment: Investor Intelligence (newsletters) reported increased Bears at 36.5% (up from 33.3%) which is the highest number in almost a year. Bulls% at 40.9 was unchanged. To repeat last week’s comment this “Adds weight to the idea that downside is limited at this point”.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 1.36. The recent low for this ratio at 1.10 was the lowest reading since Sep 2010.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Unchanged
? EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 but today has broken the minor 1/2R Support off May high at 1.44.
+ Dollar Index: Currently printing below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: printing above the major 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST from these charts.
