posted 8.12 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Friday 25th November
Aggressive Selling was marked late in the day on Wednesday (red-at-bottom). Overnight ES has reached a 34day low at 1147.50.
I see a (very minor) positive price/momentum divergence on the 60min charts but if ES closes the (shortened) session below 1158.50 (Wednesday’s low) the Weekly Structure will indicate further weakness. Chartprofit Market Timing System is very likely to turn negative for Nyse and Nasdaq Market Charts this week confirming the weakness we have seen in the daily analysis (see previous comments).
ES 1189 has now become a major poc (23months). Where ES prints relative to that level is very important. Currently in a weak position. Difficult to find obvious Support levels here – above the major poc at 1094.
Second Level Resistance = ES 1189 (poc) SPY 119.45 (poc)
First Level Resistance = 1178.50 1/2R off Oct low, (SPY 118.42)
Sentiment: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls at 32.7% (down from 41.9%) and Bears at 38.3% (up from 31.1%). The nett therefore is -5.6, down from 20.1 just two weeks ago and the first time in seven weeks there has been more Bears than Bulls.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower on Wednesday at 2.34 (from2.67).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Weaker again and approaching the October low.
– Dollar Index: Stronger again and approaching the October high.
– TLT: Printed a 36day high on Wednesday. Momentum up for eighteen days.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
