posted 9.29 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Tuesday 13th December
Note: we are now following the March contract. Thu/Fri profiles last week are now also shown as March contract.
Thursday’s red-at-bottom low was tested on Monday but the most recent imbalance is Friday’s green-at-top high. It is not obvious who controls the dayframe. Possibly the March contract will mark some Selling below the 1244 poc and that would suggest further weakness. If ES remains below that level odds favour the Sellers but this is still a very difficult market to read. How EURUSD reacts if/when it tests the October low may be the best clue we’ll get for the next few days.
First Level Resistance = ES 1244 (50dy poc) SPY = 125.44
First Level Support = ES 1214.50 (1/2R) SPY =122.30
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.57, a 13day high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). (Momentum = PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Still in a weak position below the 1.3635 poc and the 1/2R off June 2010 low. New 49day low today. Momentum turned down on Monday.
– Dollar Index: Still in a strong position above the 77.05 poc. Momentum turned up on Monday.
? TLT: currently holding above the 116.34 poc.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
