posted 9.17 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Monday 19th December
Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and no Significant Buying. The Active Sellers were Effective because the Value Area as a whole was lower and wider than the VA for the previous week.
Breadth is not supportive. The Chartprofit Market Timing System is now negative for all major Market Charts and the
%Stocks>50dyma numbers for both Nyse and Nasdaq finished the week below 50%.
The analysis on both timeframes suggests lower but so far ES has held the 1204.50, 1/2R Support. Time below that level would indicate further weakness to come.
Pre-open ES has probed up into the 8day poc at 1218.5 and repeating what I wrote pre-open on Friday “This may attract more time but intraday S/R at this level could help decide the very minor bias”.
First Level Resistance = ES 1244 (50dy poc) SPY =125.44
First Level Support = ES 1204.50 (1/2R) SPY =122.30
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 2.47. The recent high was at 2.96 (11/07) and the recent low at 1.61 (11/25).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). (Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: weak position. Printed an eleven month low last week. Momentum is down.
– Dollar Index: Last week the Chart broke above the Resistance at 80.15, the 1/2R off the 2008 low. As I write pre-open the chart is printing at that level. Momentum is up.
– TLT: Last week the 10month poc migrated higher to 117.88 and currently the Chart prints above that level.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
