posted 6.15 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Wednesday 29th February
Note: this was written more than three hours before Open. 15day poc moved to 1357. This is now First Level Support. First sign of weakness in the dayframe would be time spent below this level.
First Level Support = 1357 (15 dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1346 (25 dy poc)
Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll saw Bulls unchanged at 51.1% and Bears slightly lower at 25.5% which is the lowest level of Bears since August last year.
The Rydex traders are behaving very erratically. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was back up strongly on Wednesday to a new high at 5.25. This ratio is the highest I have in my database. Bear Fund assets which increased strongly on Tuesday, decreased by more than 20% on Wednesday and Bull Fund assets increased. Also the Rydex Money Market Assets declined to a multi-year low. Historically, these indicators at these extremes have usually been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: on Wednesday chart printed back up to the 50dy high level reached last week but then sold off to a 4dy low but currently still in a strong price location.
+ Dollar Index: on Wednesday printed a 50dy low and then rallied to a 4dy high but currently still in a weak price location.
? TLT: As I write, three hours before Open, chart prints below (just) the 10month poc at 117.88.
imo these charts currently have a slight positive bias for equities.
