posted 9.21 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Wednesday 7th March
By strictly applying my rules I had to mark Significant Selling yesterday (red-at-bottom) but it was only just. Some comments on this; firstly yesterday’s session was a gap down and I know from experience that gaps temper the significance of these imbalances. Secondly, if ES prints above yesterday’s session high at 1349.50 it would negate any bearish significance of that selling imbalance. The main thing to monitor is whether ES can hold above 1346 (see below).
The decline yesterday meant that ES printed enough time at 1346 to migrate the 30day poc back to that level – this is now First Level S/R. 1366 is now the 18day poc and this is First Level Resistance. Although the relative importance of these two levels has changed again we clearly have the same two levels to monitor. Should ES manage to recover and print time above 1366 this would be ST bullish. But, if ES cannot hold above 1346 and prints time below that level it would suggest further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1366.00 (18 dy poc)
First Level S/R = 1346 (30 dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1307 (maj poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.12 but remember last Wednesday’s ratio at 5.25 is the highest I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Tuesday’s low was printed just above the four month poc at 1.3069. Again, an important level to monitor to see if this Support holds.
? Dollar Index: printed a new 12day high yesterday. Although the chart is still below the important level at 80.15 it now prints back above the 5month poc at 79.09 and momentum is up.
? TLT: chart prints below (just) the 10month poc at 117.88.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon.
