posted 9.25a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 12th June
Once again, like last Thursday, a probe higher brought a Response from the Significant Sellers (red-at-top) and ES was auctioned back to the maj poc at 1307, by Aggressive Selling later in the day. We have seen many times that in uncertainty the market moves to the most local poc. The Value Area was overlapping/higher and generated entirely above the poc (for the third day) so this is not Effective Selling. Red-at-bottom lows are nearly always tested and yesterday’s Selling means that the new long trades are eliminated for me at least until Buyers are marked again but the most important indication in the ST is whether ES can hold above the 1307 poc.
Dayframe: the 50daypoc has moved to 1314.50 (dotted). Pre-open ES prints close to this level. Intraday this is a good reference level.
First Level Resistance = 1341 (1/2R off March high – June contract)
First Level Support = 1307 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.17 (from 2.83). Last week the ratio reached 2.25 which was a four month low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart printing below the Major poc at 1.2777 but momentum has turned up.
? Dollar Index: Prints well above the important level at 80.15 but momentum has turned down.
? TLT: w/e 1st June the chart printed a new high but momentum has turned down.
daily technicals suggest the possibility of a turn here – therefore imo, in the ST, there is no obvious bias for equities
