posted 9.07 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 14th June
Note: I will continue using the June contract until end of this week. September is now front month but i.m.o. the reference levels are better used on June contract for now. For clarity I am also closely watching the major poc Support on the SPY chart at 131.93 and on the FTSE100 (index) at 5460.
On Wednesday ES (June) generated a fifth consecutive Value Area above the 1307 poc. This pattern if often ST Bullish but the worry is that the Buyers have been as unconvincing as the Sellers over the last few days. The market looks to be waiting for the next impetus and with the event risk over the weekend it is quite possible that if 1307 is tested again this week the Buyers would not Respond – see yesterday’s comments (highlighted).
Dayframe: The 50 daypoc has moved slightly to 1319 and this would be a good reference level to use intraday.
First Level Resistance = 1341 (1/2R off March high – June contract)
First Level S/R = 1319 (50dy poc)
Support = 1307 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 3.40 (from 3.55 which was a fifteen day high). Last week the ratio reached 2.25 which was a four month low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED VIEW
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart printing below the Major poc at 1.2777 but momentum is up.
? Dollar Index: Prints well above the important level at 80.15 but momentum is down.
? TLT: w/e 1st June the chart printed a new high but momentum is down.
daily technicals suggest the possibility of a turn here – therefore imo, in the ST, there is no obvious bias for equities
