from pre-open analysis Thursday 19th March
>>Wednesday’s p.m. range was more than double the a.m. range and this is often an “exhaustion day” in a trend especially with significant buying on the previous day.
We may well see a test of yesterday’s high today but it is rare to see three consecutive days of significant buying activity and if there is a high test I would expect it to come early in the day rather than p.m.
Buyers are still in control but this is a good time for them to rest and force a selling response.<<
pre-open analysis Friday 20th March
Thursday – we saw the early test of Wednesday’s high immediately after open and the sellers responded (red at top). That’s the first time they’ve been active in six days.
It was suggested earlier in the week that sellers might step back in here:
>>803….we may well see that natural resistance level tested before sellers reappear<<
A day like Thursday with active sellers generating a higher/overlapping, narrower value area with less volume can often mark a reversal point and precede a down auction, e.g. 9th Feb. At the moment that is far from confirmed.
We need to know if this response from the sellers is a forced response (because buyers are resting) or if a shift in control of the dayframe is actually taking place.
If it’s the latter then I’d suggest ES will struggle to spend much time above 787 during the day session. Confirmation would then follow if we saw aggressive (red at bottom) selling below 767 (20day poc).
But I’m very aware that strong markets tend to close the week on a strong note.
