posted 9.13 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 12th October
The 5month poc moved higher to 1435. The significance of price being below that level and the weakness implied by that price location has now increased. Very definitely I need to see Significant Buying marked above 1435 before I can consider new longs. Effective Selling marked below 1435 would indicate further weakness. I’m being cautious here if price remains below 1435.
Thursday’s session generated an overlapping Value Area on low volume. Wednesday’s high was exceeded which according to my rules negates the ST negative implications of Wednesday’s Significant Selling. Even so, that was the most recent imbalance marked and therefore new longs are eliminated for me for now. The VAL of the range that began in early September moved slightly to 1426 (dashed). Bulls would want to see any price probe below that level being quickly rejected; acceptance around that level would be ST negative especially as this is below the 1435poc.
Second Level Resistance = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
First Level Resistance (possibly intraday Support) = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
Key chart levels this week: still monitoring the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13 (Thu Close 66.70). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Thu Close 3049.41). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Thu Close 2719.20).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.20. A week ago the ratio was 3.70. AAII (public poll) Bulls were lower at 30.6% which is a ten week low. Bears were higher at 38.8% which is an eleven week high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. Bulls would want to see that level hold. EURUSD is currently higher on the day and a strong Close could turn Momentum back up.
? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to 80.15 (the major level) and found Resistance there. This level was Resistance again on Wedneday and Thursday. Index is lower today and a weak Close could turn Momentum back down. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
? TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price relative to the 1/2R off the September low at 121.64 is worth monitoring – chart Closed above that level on Thursday. Momentum is still up.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
