posted 9.45a.m. EST
from pre-open analysis Monday 23rd March
>>Thursday and Friday saw active sellers, but on both days volume was lower than the previous day and the sellers only managed, in two days, to retrace one day (Wednesday) of active buying.
Monday is always the hardest to predict but if control is shifting to the sellers then ES would struggle to spend much time above 787 and we should see value building below 767 pretty quickly.
767 is the critical level to watch this week. This is the 1/2Range Jan28-Mar6. Currently I will not be a seller above that level.
If ES spends the early part of the week holding above 767 it increases the odds of higher prices.<<
Monday’s active buyers generated a higher but narrower value area, and more volume. I said yesterday that selling on Thursday and Friday was “not enough to confirm that the sellers are back in control” and Monday confirmed that buyers are still in control.
I wrote on Monday that 767 was the level to watch this week and that “I will not be a seller above that level” – 767 is a way down after the strong performance yesterday but until we see effective sellers responding I will assume buyers are in control and eliminate the short side.
