posted 9.25a.m. est
from pre-open comments Monday 6th April
>>Technical oscillators are getting overbought and sentiment indicators are suggesting levels of optimism that would be a problem if this is a bear market rally; in fact very similar set-up to early January. I think in both price and time the market is at a pivotal point; this is an ideal juncture for a bear market rally to start running out of steam. If the rally has more to it we’ll find out if ES consolidates above 830 over the next few days.<<
Pre-open Tuesday 7th April
Monday: value area was lower/overlapping and volume was low. Last three trading days have centred around 830 and the value areas have been narrow. That’s quite normal around a major controlling price and confirms 830 as the most important level to monitor.
I discussed the 6/7th time pivot last week – see above, and pre-open on Monday ES reached a new high for the rally.
Effective selling activity below 830 would be useful confirmation for bears that the rally has run out of steam. That has not been marked yet.
Pre-open today price failed at the 1/2 retracement from the high which is a minor indication of weakness. See 2nd graphic today.
816 area may provide support.
