posted 9.27a.m. est
From pre-open comment Wednesday 22nd April
When Aggressive Buying (green at top) is marked, the high of that day will be tested the following day, 70% of the time. Therefore we should expect Tuesday’s high at 848.75 to be exceeded at some point during today’s session. If it is not then we can assume the Buyers influence is slowing.
First level support is 836 which has already been tested pre-open.<<
Pre-open Thursday 23rd April.
Wednesday worked well with the analysis. Within the first five minutes of the session 836 had printed and that First level support held for a fast rally. Tuesday’s high was tested within the first hour. The high of the day was reached p.m. at 858.75 before a dramatic last hour decline took ES all the way back down to test the day’s low again.
In fact overnight ES tested down into the area of the major poc at 830.
Even so, based on recent imbalances marked, I will assume that Buyers are in control and therefore expect support to hold (rather than resistance).
Pre-open ES has tested the 1/2Range at 847.5 (Friday High to Tuesday Low). This is the important level today. If ES can print above 847.5 we have to assume higher but as you know the first 1/2R from a high can be a big clue so I’m not considering long today if ES prints below that level. As it has already proved resistance once today, a break above 847.5 would probably be a go with.
830 remains the major level, see note bottom left.
The current HiLo range Monday-Wednesday would need to expand by 20 points to reach the 20week average range. Upside that would take us to a new high above 872 and downside well below the major poc at 830.
