posted 8.52a.m. est
from pre-open comment Friday 1st May
>>Re a day following a day of Aggressive Significant Selling (red at bottom). 70% of the time the previous day’s low is broken during the day session. That would put ES below the major level at 872 which is also First level support/resistance. Obviously I would not be considering new longs below that level.
There will be useful information generated today for the longframe:
Do the Buyers respond as they have been?
Will the week end strongly as it has a tendency to do in a rally?
Will Effective Significant Selling be marked? That may put them back in control and that may be significant as we move into the time pivot over the next few days.<<
Pre-open Monday 4th May
As expected, Thursday’s low was tested during Friday’s session but once again the Buyers responded immediately when offered price below 2dayVA. Friday’s close was the highest of the week following relative weakness early in the week – typical bullish structure.
Last week I marked two instances of Significant Buying and one of Significant Selling (Thursday). Sellers only managed to generate an overlapping Value Area on Thursday so we are still waiting for an Effective response from them. Buyers remain in control of the dayframe.
The most significant thing that happened last week was the probe above 872 which, for now at least, appears to be holding and that’s a sign of strength.
VA above 872 rather than centred around that level would be a further sign of strength.
I would want to see active Sellers generating Value Areas below 872 before considering the short side at these levels.
