posted 08.16 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 22nd February
ES found its session low at 1495, our exact First Level Support (see yesterday’s comments). This is now minor proven Support and ST Bulls would hope this level holds. Price below 1495 would be weakened price location. The most recent imbalance was Wednesday’s Selling and I need to see Significant Buying being marked again before considering long trades.
First Level Resistance = 1517.50 (45dy poc)
First Level Support = 1495 (prev poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69% and Nasdaq 66%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.14 (from 4.87). The ratio reached 5.22 on 02/13 which was the highest reading since September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. VIX closed at 15.22, Tuesday’s close at 12.31 was the lowest since 2007.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last three weeks printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location.
– Oil USO: On Thursday broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is now in a weak price location along with GLD and SLV.
– Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, nine days ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year.
– Silver SLV: On Wednesday printed its lowest level since August last year.
– Dollar Index: On Wedneday printed its highest level since early September and today is probing above 81.35, the 1/2R Resistance off 2012 high.
– EURUSD: Printed a six week low on Wednesday. Next Support is at 1.3117, the 24mn poc.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities. Watching Bonds ETF TLT relative to its maj poc at 117.15.
