posted 09.18 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 8th March
Thursday printed another narrow but higher VA on decreased Volume. The last three Value Areas have printed above the 1517.50 poc which is strong price location (see highlighted comments from last week). Most recent imbalance is Buying (green) on this chart, higher prices have not yet attracted a markable Response from the Sellers. “Effective” Selling marked below 1517.50 would be the first indication of weakness.
First Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72%, Nasdaq 66%. Numbers >50 are supportive. But there is negative divergence here, SP500 has reached a new high above February’s high but these breadth numbers are lower than they were at that time.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 3.52. Recent low is 3.49. Rydex retail traders have not embraced this new high like they did at February’s new high. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc. Momentum (although positive) has turned down.
– Oil USO: two weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location.
– Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, three weeks ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Silver SLV: recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Dollar Index: In a strong price location above 81.35, the 1/2R off 2012 high.
– EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc. Last week printed its lowest level since early December.
I’m less confident about a negative bias these charts may have for equities because momentum (price oscillator) has turned on a number of charts.
