posted 09.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 13th March
Monday’s green-at-top high was tested (as they are 80% of the time) but in this case the test was rejected and ES generated a lower/overlapping Value Area by the end of the session. Significant Sellers were not marked. First minor sign of weakness would be Significant Selling marked below 1543, the 9day poc. First sign of weakness on the longer timeframe would be Significant Selling marked below 1517.50, the 3mn poc.
First Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72%, Nasdaq 67%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply higher at 4.67 (from 3.76). Bear Fund assets that I follow were down nearly 17%. The Rydex Traders have cut their short positions. Bull Fund Assets did not increase too much but this data needs to watched carefully for signs of obvious over-enthusiasm. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc. Momentum down.
? Oil USO: two weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
? Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, three weeks ago and has since printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
? Silver SLV: recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
– Dollar Index: In a strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R.
– EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc and today has printed its lowest level since early December.
Unsure about the bias these charts have for equities because momentum (price oscillator) has turned on a number of charts while Bonds (TLT) remains in a weak price location.
