posted 08.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 18th March
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling. Effective Selling has not been not marked since mid December. First minor sign of weakness would be Significant Selling marked below 1543 (now the 20day poc). First sign of weakness on the longer timeframe would be Significant Selling marked below 1517.50, the 3mn poc. Overnight ES sold off sharply on news but pre-open has rallied back to the 20day poc which could be Support or Resistance at the start of this week. Bulls would want to see ES printing back above that level.
First Level S/R = ES 1543 (20dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 77%, Nasdaq 72%, UK 81%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.77. The 48day low for this number is 3.49. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. This data needs to watched carefully for signs of obvious over-enthusiasm. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc but pre-open today has rallied to that Resistance. KEY CHART
? Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
? Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, four weeks ago. Momentum (although negative) is up.
? Silver SLV: Weak price location and recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) is up.
– Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R. Momentum (although positive) is down.
– EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc and has today printed its lowest level since early December. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Key Chart is TLT (Bonds) watching price relative to the 117.15 major poc.
