posted 08.12 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 19th March
See Monday’s pre-open comments highlighted on graphic. ES opened on Monday below the minor poc at 1543 (dotted) and Responsive Buyers entered immediately to rally the chart back above that level. That is encouraging for Bulls. There was an intraday higher low just above that level later in the session. You can also see that all the recent Value Areas have been generated above 1543. However, during yesterday’s session the minor (21day) poc moved up to 1547 and that is now potential intraday Support or Resistance.
First Level S/R = ES 1547 (21dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72%, Nasdaq 66%.
Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.74. The 49day low for this number is 3.49. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc but pre-open is once again printing close to that Resistance. KEY CHART
? Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
? Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, four weeks ago. Momentum is up.
? Silver SLV: Weak price location and recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) is up.
– Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R. Momentum (although positive) is down.
– EURUSD: The 24mn poc has migrated to 1.3070. Chart is still in a weak price location below that level and on Monday printed its lowest level since early December. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Key Chart is TLT (Bonds) watching price relative to the 117.15 major poc.
