posted 10.03 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 25th March
from pre-open Friday >>As yesterday’s Value Area was printed entirely above that VAL I’m not overly confident about the further weakness that the Selling Balance suggests.<< Last week I marked Significant Selling once and Significant Buying twice including Aggressive Buying on Friday which means new short trades are once again eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. Pre-open today ES has printed above 1560 to a new high and as long as chart holds above 1547, the minor poc, it is in a strong price location. Recently ES has been printing time between the minor VAL at 1538 and the minor VAH at 1551 and we look for breakout of that range. ES is likely to Open above 1551 at the start of this week and I am interested to see if Sellers Respond to that opportunity early in the session. Price acceptance (i.e. time) above 1551 would be Bullish. First sign of weakness on the longer timeframe would be Significant Selling marked below 1517.50, the 3mn poc.
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 68%, UK 71% Numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1547 (25dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.87. The 48day low for this number is 3.49. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Pre-open today the chart prints below the maj poc at 117.15 which is is weak location.
? Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location but Momentum is up and positive.
? Gold GLD: showed weakness after it broke below 161.0, the major poc, six weeks ago but Momentum is positive now and up.
? Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location.
– Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R but Momentum (although positive) is down.
– EURUSD: The 24mn poc has migrated to 1.3070. Chart is still in a weak price location below that level and last week printed its lowest level since November. Momentum (although negative) is up.
imo these charts are not clear re bias for equities.
