Chartprofit eBook 15th March
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First sign of weakness would be “Effective” Selling marked in the ES analysis and that has not happened since mid December. Overnight (before Monday’s open) ES sold off sharply on news but pre-open has rallied back to the 20day poc which could be Support or Resistance at the start of this week. Bulls would want to see ES printing back above that level. Also TLT is a Key Chart at the start of this week, see below.
*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc but pre-open today has rallied to that Resistance. KEY CHART
Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, four weeks ago. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Silver SLV: Weak price location and recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R. Momentum (although positive) is down.
EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc and has today printed its lowest level since early December. Momentum (although negative) is up.
ES analysis:
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling. Effective Selling has not been not marked since mid December. First minor sign of weakness would be Significant Selling marked below 1543 (now the 20day poc). First sign of weakness on the longer timeframe would be Significant Selling marked below 1517.50, the 3mn poc.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 77%, Nasdaq 72%, UK 81%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/15: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% higher at 45.4% (from 31.1%). Highest Bulls% recently was 52.3% seven weeks ago. Bears% was lower at 32% (from 38.5%). The Nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore 13.4 and the highest recently was 28 seven weeks ago.
03/15: Investors Intelligence reported Bears% at 18.7 which is the lowest since mid May 2011. Bulls% at 50 is not as high early February but Bull/Bear ratio at 2.7 is the highest since the same date.
03/15: Market Vane (advisers) poll. Unchanged at 69 which is the highest since 2007.
03/15: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) came in higher than last week at 85.64 (from 90.15). Still a high number historically. The highest reading being 104.25 six weeks ago.
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/15: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.77. The 48day low for this number is 3.49. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
03/15: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $11.3 Billion in the week to 13th March. That’s a big inflow. The four week flow number is at $18.96 Billion which, although not as extreme as February, is still high.
03/15: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3 Billion in the week to 13th March.