Chartprofit eBook 12th April
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. This Resistance has not yet been overcome.
Oil USO: prints back below 34.17, the 1/2R and 3year poc. Has today (Monday) fallen sharply and printed its lowest level since December.
Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Fell steeply on Friday and again pre-open today (Monday) to its lowest level for two years.
Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January. Pre-open today is much lower and has printed its lowest level since October 2010.
Dollar Index: ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777 earlier this month and is now attempting to consolidate above the 24mn poc at 1.3070, which is stronger price location if it can hold this level.
ES analysis:
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice (Monday and Tuesday) and no Significant Selling. The last three days held higher prices which is encouraging but here are some negatives. The minor pattern of Support off previous day’s poc was broken on Friday; there is a negative divergence between higher prices and Price Osc, see SPY in eBook (this would be confirmed by Price Osc turning down; and Small Caps are lagging the Larger Cap indices – even so until Effective Selling is marked I will assume the Buyers are still in control of the dayframe.
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*********** BREADTH
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all US Major Market Charts and UK went back to positive from negative.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 55%, UK 63%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
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*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
04/12: AAII (public poll) reported extreme change. Bulls% was down from 35.5% to 19.3%. The change is -16.2 and I only have three single week changes larger than that in my database (back to start of 2008). The increase in Bears% was even more extreme. Up from 28.2% to 54.5%. That’s a change of 26.3 and the largest increase in my database. The nett fell this week from 7.3 to -35.2.
04/12: Investors Intelligence. Compared to the AAII data this poll was relatively unchanged. Bulls% was slightly lower at 50.5% (from 52%) and Bears% was slightly higher at 20.6% (from 19.4%).
04/12: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 65 Four weeks ago it reached 69 which was the highest since 2007.
04/12: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher this week at 77.25. Last week’s 72.71 was an 18week low – lowest since w/e 30th Nov.
Mutual Fund Flow:
04/12: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher on Friday and ended the week at 4.60. The Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22. 60day low was 3.49.
04/12: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.4 Billion in the week to 10th April. The four week flow number fell from $14.05 Billion previous week to $4.15 Billion.
04/12: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2 Billion in the week to 10th April.