posted 06.30 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 12th June
The 50 day poc migrated back down to ES 1628 on Tuesday. First sign of ST strength would be Significant Buying marked above that level. Further sign of ST strength would be price printing time above the minor 1/2R at 1641 with the stock indices confirming relative to their 1/2R levels as follows: SPY 164.66; IWM 98.05; QQQ 73.21; DIA 151.72. At current levels I’m not interested in new long trades unless that happens.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 65%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
First Level Resistance = ES 1641 (minor 1/2R)
First Level S/R = ES 1628 (55 day poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher again at 4.48. This is a little concerning. Bulls would want to see some measurable fear shown by the Rydex traders (contrarian). Still haven’t seen that yet.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: In a weak price location below the major poc at 117.15. On Tuesday the chart printed its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: On Friday chart again probed the Resistance around 34.20 but has not printed any time above this level yet. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May. Momentum, although negative, is up.
Silver SLV: On Tuesday printed its lowest level since October 2010.
Dollar Index: On Tuesday chart again tested the Support at the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Currently holding that level but Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Has today printed its highest level since February and above 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is up and positive.
