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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday below Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates Sellers Active on the weekly timeframe. Previous two weeks also indicated no bias. Three weeks ago Sellers were marked as active on this timeframe for the first time this year.
ES Analysis: from pre-open today. Last week I marked Significant (Aggressive) Selling twice and no Significant Buying. Thursday and Friday generated Value Areas below the 3mn poc at 1628. Sellers in control of the dayframe. ES has next Support at the 11mn poc at 1548. Price below this level would be very weak location.
Next Level ETF Support as follows: SPY 155.80; DIA 144.24; QQQ 68.62; IWM 93.62.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Has today (Monday) has printed its lowest level since Sep 2011.
Oil USO: Printing below the 34.20 area of S/R. Momentum is positive but has turned down.
Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level since Sep 2010.
Silver SLV: Last week printed its lowest level since Sep 2010.
Dollar Index: Held maj Support which is the major poc at 80.15. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: Momentum is positive but has turned down and today (Monday) is testing minor Support at 1.3081, 1/2R off April low.
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*********** BREADTH
CP Market Timing System turned negative (from neutral) for Nyse and R2000; turned neutral (from positive)for Nasdaq and remained negative for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 35%, Nasdaq 54%, R2000 53%, UK25%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
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*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
06/21: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 37.5% from previous week’s 33% . Bears% was lower at 30%, from 34.6%.The nett is therefore higher at 7.5. So an increase in retail bullish sentiment for the second week when market has been down. This is not usually bullish.
06/21: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 46.8% (from 43.8%). Bears% was lower at 21.9% (from 22.9%). The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore 24.9, up from previous week’s 20.9 which was the lowest since w/e 7th December. Four week’s ago the nett reached 36.4 which was the highest since May 2011.
06/21: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 65. The number reached 70 five weeks ago which was the highest since 2007.
06/21: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 51.53 (from 61.90).
Mutual Fund Flow:
06/21: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.53, a forty day low. I’m watching the ratio relative to its 5month low which was 3.27 printed on 25th April.
06/21: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $4.7 billion in the week to 19th June.
06/21: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.5 billion in the week to 19th June.
Option Ratios:
06/21: ISEE (equities only) Index_10dyma printed 121.6 on Friday which is a multi-year low.