posted 09.03 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 10th July
Tuesday generated a third consecutive higher Value Area. No Significant Selling has been marked for twelve days.
If I plot a price distribution using data from the start of this year I note that the poc is currently at 1549 (exactly at the centre of that range) and the VAH (Value Area High) is at 1658. ES has put itself in a much stronger price location back above the 3mn poc at 1628 and as long as that level holds I assume higher. If ES consolidates around current levels the 1549 six month poc could migrate higher.
1st Level Support = ES 1628.00 (3mn poc)
2nd Level Support = ES 1616.75 (1/2R off May high)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60%, Nasdaq 71%, R2000 74%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 2.73 (on an up day). On 06/26 the ratio reached a multi-month low at 2.62. The market has rallied from that point but the ratio is not much off its low and from a contrarian p.o.v. this is usually a positive in the ST.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Last week printed its lowest level since Sep 2011. Momentum is negative and down.
Oil USO: pre-open has printed its highest level since May 2012. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On Tuesday printed its highest level since July 2010.
EURUSD: Weak price location since w/e 06/28 when it broke below 1.3081, 1/2R off April low. Sharply lower at the end of last week. On Tuesday tested the maj poc Support at 1.2777, prints 1.2824 as I write.
