posted 09.00 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 12th July
Thursday generated a higher Value Area and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. No Significant Selling has been marked for fourteen days and, most importantly, the 4mn poc has migrated higher to 1645. This is now important Support and as long as ES holds this level it is in a yet stronger price location. Breadth has been steadily improving (see below) and the Rydex data, as mentioned yesterday, indicates lots of bears (this is contrarian bullish).
1st Level Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71%, Nasdaq 76%, R2000 80%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.90. Wednesday’s 2.15 was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicates real fear from the retail trader – this is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Last week printed its lowest level since Sep 2011.
Oil USO: On Wednesday printed its highest level since May 2012. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: has rallied a little from the low on 06/28 which was its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On Tuesday printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there to test Support at the 12mn poc at 82.73. Back above that level today.
EURUSD: Rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on Tuesday. The 9mn poc at 1.3075 was tested yesterday but chart is below that level today.
