posted 07.40 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 17th July
Please note I would have preferred to have posted this shortly before pre-open today but circumstances meant it had to be posted at 07.30a.m. FED report due.
On Tuesday Sellers Responded (red-at-top) immediately after the open. This is the first Significant Selling I have marked in seventeen days but is quite possibly just Buyers Resting ahead of today’s FED report and therefore I am not placing too much importance on this. In the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above the 4month poc at 1645 it remains in a strong price location. Significant Selling marked below that level would be first sign of weakness on that timeframe.
1st Level Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71%, Nasdaq 77%, R2000 80%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.47 which is a 16day high but putting that in context, last week the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader (this is a contrarian indicator).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed its lowest level since Sep 2011. Bounced very little since then. Tuesday printed an 8day high. Momentum, although negative, is up.
Oil USO: now printing above the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31. Strong price location if that level holds. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: Printed a sixteen day high on Tuesday. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Silver SLV: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is today printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc. Momentum, although positive, is down.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 early last week and is now printing above 1.3075, the 9mn poc. Momentum (although negative) is up.
