posted 90.15 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 22nd July
Last week I marked Responsive Selling on Tuesday which was negated by subsequent price action and Aggressive Buying on Friday. Friday closed above the high of Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range so Buyers were active on this timeframe for the third week running. In the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above the 4month poc at 1645 it remains in a strong price location. Friday’s session low came in just above the minor Support at 1677.00 (23day poc) and the first sign of weakness in the ST would be ES printing time below that level.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained positive for NYSE, Nasdaq, R2000 Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78%, Nasdaq 79%, R2000 84%, UK 78%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.0. During the previous week the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed its lowest level since Sep 2011. Bounced very little since then. Momentum, although negative, is up.
Oil USO: On Friday printed its highest level since May 2012. Until very recently the maj poc was at 38.0. Chart broke above that price late last week and is now printing above that level and the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31. This is a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010. Momentum has turned positive and pre-open today chart printed a 22day high.
Silver SLV: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010. Momentum has turned positive and pre-open today chart printed a 22day high.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and pre-open today is printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc. Momentum is still down and could possibly turn negative today. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and has consolidated above 1.3075, the 9mn poc. If that level holds the chart is in a stronger price location than it has been since mid June. Momentum is up and could turn positive today.
