posted 08.08 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 31st July
Tuesday’s session low, like Monday’s, was at the First Level Support at 1677.00, see chart. In the ST as long as ES holds above this level it remains in a strong price location.
Dayframe: The minor 1/2R off last week’s (and July’s) high is 1683 and the 12day poc migrated to 1682.50. Could be intraday Support or Resistance and give a clue re ST direction. Overnight ES has printed as high as 1687.75 and ninety minutes pre-open is printing at 1684.00.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1677.00 (30dy poc)
2nd Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72%, Nasdaq 72%, R2000 75%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.29. On 07/10 the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed 107.16, its lowest level since Sep 2011. TLT closed on Tuesday at 107.31. Still a weak looking chart.
Oil USO: Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back up and chart back above 37.31, 1/2R off 2011 high. USO closed below that level on Tuesday at a fifteen day low.
Gold GLD: printed a 5week high last week. Momentum is positive but turned down on Monday. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Momentum is positive but turned down on Friday. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc which is weaker price location. Momentum is negative. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied strongly since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and on Tuesday printed a 25day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
