posted 09.19 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 1st August
There was a probe late in the session below the 12day poc at 1682.50 but Wednesday’s Value Area was generated entirely above that level which is ST positive. Note also that 1683 is the minor 1/2R off last week’s (and July’s) high. Even though I did not mark Significant Selling there was rejection again from the 1694 area and as of ninety minutes pre-open that has been the high today. I would take it as ST positive if price is accepted at that level early in today’s session.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1677.00 (30dy poc)
2nd Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71%, Nasdaq 72%, R2000 73%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.48 which is a 27day high but to put that in persective; the ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012). With the market higher than the May high the ratio has been slow to climb.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: On Wednesday chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2011.
Oil USO: Pre-open chart is back above 37.31, 1/2R off 2011 high and printing at 38.00 Resistance which was previously the major poc. Time spent here could lift the major poc back to this level which would be interesting.
Gold GLD: printed a 5week high last week. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Momentum is positive but turned down on Friday. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc which is weaker price location. Momentum is negative and down. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied strongly since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and on Wednesday printed a 28day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
