posted 07.30 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 23rd September
Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates no bias on the weekly timeframe.
Last week I marked Significant Selling three times and Significant Buying once. Friday’s session generated a lower, wider Value Area and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked for the first time in seventeen days. The last five Value Areas were generated above 1685.50, the 12mn poc, so the Selling (red) last week can all be considered “Responsive” in the longer timeframe. Even so, new long trades are eliminated for me at least until new Significant Buying is marked. Only Significant Selling marked below 1685.50 would be of concern in the LT.
Breadth: CP Market Timing System turned positive (from neutral) for Nyse, stayed positive for Nasdaq and stayed positive for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 61%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = 1685.50 (12mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1644.50 (5mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.86. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Printed a twelve day high last Tuesday but remains in a weak price location below 107.22, the 6mn poc.
Oil USO: Bulls would want to see chart hold (or quickly recover) a strong price location above its Support band, i.e. 37.31, the 1/2R off 2011 high and 37.93, its maj poc. Closed within that Support Band on Friday.
Gold GLD: Despite printing an eight day high on Thursday, the chart remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
Dollar Index: Last week’s sharp sell-off briefly tested the important Support at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would hope this holds, price printing time below this level would put the chart in an extremely weak location.
EURUSD: On Thusday printed its highest level since February. Momentum is up and positive.
