posted 09.20 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 26th September
You can see on the chart that First Level Support at 1685.50, the 12mn poc has been probed. First test early in the session was quickly rejected but this faded later in the session and ES closed near its low. Bulls would want to see a more convincing Response from the Buyers around these levels – price printing time below that poc would be weak location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 61%, R2000 62%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = 1685.50 (12mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1644.50 (5mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 4.11. Yesterday’s ratio was a 78day high (this is a contrarian indicator). The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Printed a 31day high on Wednesday probing the 6mn poc at 107.22. Pre-open chart prints just below that level. Price above that level would put the chart in a much stronger location.
Oil USO: Closed Wednesday below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band, i.e. 37.31, the 1/2R off 2011 high and 37.93, its maj poc.
Gold GLD: Despite printing an eight day high last week, the chart remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Momentum is negative has turned up.
Dollar Index: Last week’s sharp sell-off briefly tested the important Support at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would hope this holds, price printing time below this level would put the chart in an extremely weak location.
EURUSD: Last week printed its highest level since February. Momentum is up and positive.
