posted 07.53 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 2nd October
The local poc is shifting around between 1685.50 and 1689.00. These levels have attracted almost the same amount of time (imo due to two different distributions on different timeframes). Following the Responsive Buying (green-at-bottom) marked on Monday, there was a probe to test the 1689 level on Tuesday, see chart. Significant Buying marked above 1689 would be a positive and Significant Selling marked below 1685.50 would be a negative. Breadth numbers are encouraging, see below, but Rydex data is not, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 67%, R2000 68%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Poc at 1685.50 poc may attract more time
First Level Resistance = 1689.00 poc
First Level Support = 1653.50 poc
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 4.54 which is the highest ratio since 06/11. This is a contrarian indicator and the ratio rising over the last week as the market came lower is most likely ST bearish. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Printed a 31day high last week probing the 6mn poc at 107.22. Chart is currently printing below that level. Price above that level would put the chart in a much stronger location.
Oil USO: For the last seven days has been printing below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band which is weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
Gold GLD: Printed a 39dy low on Tuesday and remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location.
Dollar Index: Is today printing at the important Support at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc) having probed slightly below it this week. Dollar Bulls would hope this holds, price printing time below this level would put the chart in an extremely weak location.
EURUSD: On Monday printed its highest level since February. Momentum is up but that could change with a weak close today.
