posted 09.15 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 3rd October
imo the current minor distribution began in early September and this has a VAL at 1676 (dashed line) so it was mildly encouraging to see a rejected test of that level on Wednesday. However until I mark Significant Buying above the proven poc Resistance at 1689 I will definitely not consider new longs on any timeframe.
There is a glaring disparity between SPY (down 2.5% from Sep high) and Small Caps IWM and QQQQ both of which hit new highs this week.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 65%, R2000 64%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Poc at 1685.50 poc may attract more time
First Level Resistance = 1689.00 poc
First Level Support = 1653.50 poc
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.35. Tuesday’s ratio at 4.54 was the highest ratio since 06/11. This is a contrarian indicator. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Printed a 31day high last week probing the 6mn poc at 107.22. Chart is currently printing below that level. Price above that level would put the chart in a much stronger location.
Oil USO: Rallied to an eight day high on Wednesday and closed above 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band. Momentum is negative but turned up. I’m not interested in considering the long side of this chart until price can print time above 37.93, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: Printed a 39dy low on Tuesday and remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location.
Dollar Index: Is today printing below the important level at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would want to see price printing back above this level asap.
EURUSD: On Wednesday printed its highest level since February. Momentum is positive but turned down yesterday.
