posted 9.24a.m. est
from pre-open comment Wednesday 10th June
>>More than a week ago I anticipated that 941 would attract time – see top of this column. Yesterday’s price action confirmed that. Over the last six days ES has spent more time at 941 than any other price. It is quite likely that ES will now move directionally away from that level.
As long as ES holds above 941, higher prices are likely in the short term with 970 or just above as a target. We have seen Significant Sellers respond twice to reject price above 950 but we did not see Effective Selling following on.
Effective Selling below 941 would suggest a shift in control to the Sellers and considering the increase in bullish sentiment recently I have to admit I’m looking for it.
For now though Buyers remain in control of the dayframe and have been since March 12th.<<
Pre-open Thursday 11th June
I thought that ES was ready to move directionally away from 941. Not yet it seems. The exact middle of Wednesday’s globex range was 941, rallying back to that level late in the day having been down to 927.
Sellers once again rejected an early price probe above 948.
All previous comments repeated above are relevant. I’ll just add some contrarian warnings from the latest sentiment measurements:
VIX was down into the mid-twenties again yesterday.
Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll showed the highest %Bulls and the lowest %Bears since Jan 2008. There are now twice as many Bulls as Bears and that has also not been seen since Jan 2008.
On Tuesday Nasdaq Volume was more than double NYSE volume, and almost double again on Wednesday. This pushed the 10day ma of the ratio to a very high 1.76, the highest for months. Readings above 1.5 have preceeded sell-offs since Oct 07.
Some of Rydex Assets Ratios that I track are recording extreme levels of bullishness among equity mutual fund investors.
