posted 9.28a.m. est
from pre-open comment Wednesday 10th June
>>As long as ES holds above 941, higher prices are likely in the short term with 970 or just above as a target. Effective Selling below 941 would suggest a shift in control to the Sellers and considering the increase in bullish sentiment recently I have to admit I’m looking for it. For now though Buyers remain in control of the dayframe and have been since March 12th.<<
from pre-open comment Thursday 11th June
>>…some contrarian warnings from the latest sentiment measurements:
VIX was down into the mid-twenties again yesterday.
Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll showed the highest %Bulls and the lowest %Bears since Jan 2008. There are now twice as many Bulls as Bears and that has also not been seen since Jan 2008.
On Tuesday Nasdaq Volume was more than double NYSE volume, and almost double again on Wednesday. This pushed the 10day ma of the ratio to a very high 1.76, the highest for months. Readings above 1.5 have preceeded sell-offs since Oct 07.
Some of Rydex Assets Ratios that I track are recording extreme levels of bullishness among equity mutual fund investors.<<
Pre-open Friday 12th June
All previous comments repeated above are relevant.
Thursday’s value area was higher but narrower. ES drawn back again to 941 which is very obviously the controlling price and also the 1/2R from the globex high on the 5th.
SP500 index support trendline from the March low -> late May low comes in around 931 today. The early May high on this index chart supported the base of the June consolidation and any chartist will tell you that’s a bullish pattern; they would probably also tell you the index is going much higher if there’s a breakout above 950. That’s where the chart pattern might let them down. Sentiment is very (too) bullish.
