posted 09.15 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 7th November
Wednesday’s session generated a higher, narrower Value Area. As long as ES holds above 1757.50 it is a strong price location in the ST. If market were to push higher I would expect a further increase in bullish sentiment which is already high (see below).
First Level Support = 1757.50 (minor 38dy poc)
Second Level LT Support = = 1685.50 poc
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69% (from 70%), Nasdaq 59% (from 61%), R2000 62% (from 64%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 5.0. Tuesday’s ratio at 5.1 was the highest since May 28th. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012). Note: Investors Intelligence Bears came in at 15.6% this week which is the lowest Bears% for years. VIX closed at 12.67, the lowest since mid August.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Sharply over last few days.. Has been in a weak price location since it fell below 107.18, the 8mn poc, at the end of last week. Momentum (although positive) is down.
Gold GLD: Below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Sold off to the Support at 126.11, 1/2R off June low but has not broken it so far. Price below this level would be weaker location still.
Oil USO: Has probed below the Support Band which is 34.17 = 1/2R off 2009 low and 34.13 = 3yr poc. Pre-open is printing just above the band.
Dollar Index: Back in a stronger price location above the important level at 80.15.
EURUSD: Sharp sell off at the end of last week and has today broken Support at 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low. Weak price location.
