posted 09.12 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 11th November
Dayframe: from pre-open Tuesday 15th October >>1702.50 is the VAH of the distribution that began early July. If this level does not stall the chart it suggests, imo, that a new bullish distribution has begun<<
The current VAL of the distribution mentioned is at 1737.50. Pre-open on Friday ES tested/rejected that level which suggests it is valid. The VAH of this distribution is at 1767.50 and the poc at 1757.50. It would be interesting if that poc migrated.
Longframe: Following Thursday’s Active Selling, Friday saw an immediate Response from the Buyers. A day of Responsive and Aggressive Selling followed by a day of Responsive and Aggressive Buying is rare. Also, Thursday’s red-at-bottom low was not tested the following day as it usually is. We currently have Sellers Responding above 1770 and Buyers Responding below 1745. Both looking to take control of the dayframe with the local poc right in the middle of that range at 1757.50. Price acceptance (time) at 1770 or above would indicate higher and acceptance at 1745 or below would indicate lower. In the ST, with price back above 1757.50 in a stronger price location and the most recent imbalance being Buying (green), odds would seem to favour the Bulls although Momentum (PriceOsc) continues down for all four Stock Index ETFs and the CP Market Timing System has now negative for all major Market Charts. Mixed.
ST Support = 1757.50 (40dy poc)
LT Support = = 1685.50 poc
SPY closed the week within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which does not indicate a bias on this timeframe.
Breadth: CP Market timing System turned negative (from neutral) for Nyse, turned negative (from neutral) for Nasdaq, remained negative for R2000 and turned negative (from positive) for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 61%, UK 69%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.63. Tuesday’s ratio at 5.1 was the highest since May 28th. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: The 8mn poc is now at 106.31 and TLT is currently in a weak price location below that level. Chart was sharply lower on Friday. Momentum is negative and down.
Gold GLD: Broke Support at 126.11, 1/2R off June low at the end of the week. Weak price location.
Oil USO: Currently printing just below the low of the Support Band which is 34.17 = 1/2R off 2009 low and 34.13 = 3yr poc.
Dollar Index: Back in a stronger price location above the important level at 80.15.
EURUSD: Currently printing just below the 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low. Bulls would want to see chart recover that level. Momentum is down and negative.
