posted 09.13 a.m. est
On Wednesday I marked Responsive and Aggressive Selling. Sellers are active (see red on chart) but so far have not been Effective, e.g. yesterday’s Value Area was overlapping. This could be Buyers Resting, in which case ES would most likely move quickly higher if they are marked again but as per comment on Tuesday, I will wait for Buying (green) to be marked again before looking at new long trades; especially as red-at-bottom lows are usually tested within a day or two (80% of the time) and our Momentum indicator for three of the four stock index ETFs has turned lower again.
Dayframe: Useful to monitor the 2mn pocs on IWM at 109.16, and QQQ at 82.37. Currently both charts printing close to these Support levels and time below would indicate ST weakness.
ST Support = 1758.50 (45dy poc)
LT Support = = 1685.50 poc
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% (from 62%), Nasdaq 55% (unchanged), R2000 56% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 5.0 (from 4.95). The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012). Rydex Money Market (Investor Class) Assets were down, reaching lowest level since May 2912, this indicates increasing bullishness.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: sharply lower on Wednesday – now close to the August low.
Gold GLD: sharply lower on Wednesday to its lowest level since early July. Momentum is negative and down.
Oil USO: Remains in a weak price location below 34.13, the 3yr poc.
Dollar Index: The last fifteen days have been spent back in a stronger price location above the important level at 80.15. Momentum (although positive) is down.
EURUSD: Lower on Wednesday but found its low exactly at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low). If this Support is broken chart will be in a weaker price location. s Support is broken chart will be in a weaker price location.
