posted 4.40a.m. est
from pre-open comment Wednesday 17th June
>>In the longframe I’m confident that the trend has changed to down for the reasons given in the webcast this week including; 91day count March low to June high, excessive public bullishness, smart-money not bullish, charts breaking down etc.
On Tuesday, Significant, Aggressive Sellers were active (red at bottom), and this was below the controlling price at 941. I am not interested in the long side now unless ES manages to print back above 941. In the dayframe I have to say that the Selling cannot yet be classified as Effective because strictly speaking Tuesday’s Value Area was Lower/Overlapping rather than Lower.
But I believe the best strategy now is Sell Rallies rather than Buy Dips.
ES is very likely to test Tuesday’s low during the day session today. Last imbalance is down (red) so I cannot be a buyer.<<
Pre-open Thursday 18th June
Over the last nine trading sessions I have marked only one instance of Significant Buying and that was a very Ineffective response last Friday. Three instances of Significant Selling were marked over the same period.
I have Wednesday marked as a day where Sellers were resting looking for a response from the Buyers. There was a response but not strong enough to be marked. Wednesday was the fourth consecutive day of lower, or overlapping/lower value areas and we haven’t seen that since the March low.
Looking at the Value Area for this week so far – it is shaping up to be the first lower Weekly Value Area since the March low unless there’s a big rally to the end of the week.
The controlling price has migrated to 907.5 This is also First Level S/R. Value building (time spent) below this level would be another negative.
